Environmental Foresight and Models: A Manifesto
[b][size=4][color=green]Environmental Foresight and Models: A ManifestoBeck M B (Ed). 2002. Oxford: Elsevier Science. ISBN 0-080-44086-X (hardback) 473 pages.
Models provide an abridged but effective representation of the real world. Through the filter of environmental models we examine and explore the complexity of natural processes across space and time. Usually these models are subjected to variations in their building blocks and the impact on the model output is compared against reality to determine the exactness of the representation. How these models are constructed and the consequences of that construction for the model outputs have been well researched and reported in the literature.
But as environmental changes become more global and the evolution dynamics more long-term, there is an increasing chance that the behaviour of the environment may become dramatically different from that observed in the past. It is these structural changes in the behaviour of the environment and their implications for the way we conceptualise and develop our models that are the focus of Environmental Foresight and Models: A Manifesto. The book represents the declaration of the International Task Force on Forecasting Environmental Change (1993-1998) that was assembled to address the issue of structural change and the extent to which models can be trusted in predicting environmental change. The book consists of nineteen chapters arranged into four logical Parts (The Manifesto, Case Histories, The Approach, Epilogue). This volume in the Developments in Environmental Modelling Series (22) has left few stones unturned in examining structural changes, environmental behaviour, and model development.
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Share and let’s help each other !![/color][/size][/b] 模型好，生态学要有大的发展，模型是极其重要的手段 模型好，好书。下载看看 ding.............................ganxielz hehe ,肯定是好东西，aaa
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