双语新闻：中国旺盛需求力挺亚洲资源大国
China's Appetite Fuels Commodity-Rich AsiaChina's continuing economic surge is sustaining robust export gains for commodity-rich Asian suppliers such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand -- a development that could cushion some of the region's fast-growing countries from the economic woes of the U.S. and Western Europe.
But not everybody is benefiting. Some Asian nations that rely on electronics shipments for the bulk of their exports, such as Singapore and the Philippines, are beginning to show signs that a slowdown in the U.S. is beginning to bite.
Record commodity prices amid strong demand from China for raw materials have lifted the value of exports from a number of Asian countries well above last year's levels. Malaysia, for example, this week posted a 21% jump in exports in April from a year earlier, while India reported a 31.5% increase. Some economic analysts suggest such performances will help maintain healthy growth levels in Asia in the short to medium term, despite rising concern about food- and fuel-driven inflationary pressures.
Malaysia, which released April export figures Tuesday, reflects how countries with large reserves of important commodities such as oil, natural gas and palm oil are still cashing in by selling such resources to Asia's manufacturing powerhouses like China, Japan and South Korea. Exports of palm oil -- used for cooking oil and biodiesel -- jumped 71% in value terms from a year earlier; shipments of crude oil and natural gas rose 53% and 26%, respectively. Commodities sales were augmented by a 12.5% increase in the value of Malaysia's electronic-components exports, which comprise about 39% of the country's total exports.
'I think it's very clear that Chinese imports of palm oil have been a big driver of Malaysia's exports, and that buoyant growth in China is sustaining strong export growth among its trading partners,' said Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING Financial Markets.
Similarly, Thailand's exports grew 28% year-to-year in April, helped in large part by soaring prices of rice and other agricultural products. Indonesia, which issues its export data on a month-to-month basis, saw its monthly exports hit a record $11.9 billion in March, in part because of rising prices of crude palm oil, of which it is the world's largest producer. Indonesia also exports natural gas, minerals such as coal and timber products. In April, Indonesian exports were up 23% from a year earlier.
China, long the world's fastest-growing economy, is still a key buyer driving all this activity. The country's economy grew 10.6% in the first quarter of 2008 from a year earlier, despite a slowing U.S. economy and Beijing's own efforts to reduce the torrid pace of growth to restrain inflation. Even developed economies like Japan have received a boost from China's vigor. Japan's economy expanded 3.3% year-to-year in the first quarter of 2008, thanks to growing exports of industrial goods and parts to China, although economists there warn that those exports have shown signs of tapering off in recent weeks.
Indian exports, too, show some resilience, growing 31.5% year-to-year in April after expanding 27% from a year earlier in March, as businesses there sought new markets in Europe and the Middle East for gems, jewelry, textiles and refined petroleum products to make up for slowing demand from the U.S. China also is emerging as one of India's trading partners, buying about 8% of India's total exports.
'Clearly, India is another country in the region which has seen export growth (at least in value terms) pick up, rather than slow down, as most had feared, over recent months,' HSBC Holdings PLC's Singapore-based regional economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde wrote in a research report this week. 'It is further evidence, if any was needed, that a weak U.S. economy needn't be disastrous for Asian export growth, let alone overall gross domestic product growth.'
Still, countries across Asia are facing some challenging economic problems, in particular growing inflationary pressure driven by rising fuel and food prices, as well as slowing demand from the U.S. That could begin to blunt growth in the longer term.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on Wednesday released its twice-yearly economic outlook, which predicted slower economic expansions in every emerging economy except Hungary, which is recovering from a poor 2007.
The Paris-based organization of mostly wealthy countries forecast that the so-called BRIC countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- would see steadily slowing growth throughout the year, largely based on a deteriorating economic situation in the U.S.
Indeed, some Asian countries, such as the Philippines, are already feeling the effects of the slowing U.S. economy. The Philippines' GDP grew 5.2% in the first quarter of 2008 from a year earlier -- well off its 7.2% growth pace for the whole of 2007. That forced the government to cut its growth target for 2008 to 5.7%-6.5% from its earlier goal of 6.3%-7%.
Slowing export growth -- particularly in electronic components shipped to the U.S. and other countries -- was in large part to blame, economists said, especially because the Philippines lacks the kind of palm oil and other commodity-based industries supported by big Asian manufacturing nations like China.
'After a four-quarter streak of pleasantly surprising performances, the Philippine economy succumbed to rising oil prices and the slowdown in the U.S. economy,' Romulo Virola, head of the Philippines' state economic-data agency, told reporters while announcing the slower first-quarter growth rate last week.
Singapore also saw its electronics exports decline 0.4% year-to-year in April, while its total nonoil exports grew 5.4% from April 2007.
中国旺盛需求力挺亚洲资源大国
对于马来西亚、印尼与泰国等商品资源丰富的亚洲国家来说，中国经济的持续高速增长使得它们保持了出口的强劲增势；中国的旺盛需求或将拉动亚洲部分经济迅猛发展的国家，从而有助于缓解美国与西欧经济困境给它们带来的冲击。
但并非所有国家都能从中受益。对新加坡与菲律宾等以电子产品出口为主的亚洲国家来说，美国经济放缓带来的冲击正开始逐渐显现。
受商品价格连创新高推动，许多亚洲国家的出口额都较上年同期出现了明显增长；在这背后，中国对原材料的旺盛需求功不可没。例如，马来西亚本周公布的4月份出口额较上年同期飙升了21%，当月印度出口更是增长了31.5%。一些经济分析师认为，尽管食品与燃料价格上涨带来的通货膨胀压力日益令人担忧，但这种良好的出口表现将有助于亚洲国家在中短期内继续保持良性增长势头。
马来西亚周二公布了4月份出口数据。从数据可以看出，通过将石油、天然气、棕榈油等重要商品资源出售给中国、日本与韩国等亚洲制造业中心，拥有丰富商品资源的国家仍然财源滚滚。当月马来西亚棕榈油（用于食用油与生物柴油）出口额较上年同期暴涨了71%，原油与天然气出口则分别增长了53%与26%。当月马来西亚电子元件出口额也增长了12.5%，这部分产品约占马来西亚出口总额的39%。
ING Financial Markets亚洲研究部门主管蒂姆.康登(Tim Condon)认为，很明显中国的棕榈油进口一直是马来西亚出口的主要推动力；得益于中国经济的迅猛增长，其贸易伙伴才维持了强劲的出口增势。
与此类似，泰国4月份出口额较上年同期增长了28%，主要受大米与其他农产品价格飙升的推动。印尼3月份出口额创119亿美元的历史新高，一定程度上受到了棕榈油毛油价格上涨的推动。印尼是全球最大的棕榈油毛油生产国。印尼还出口天然气、煤炭等矿产以及木材产品。印尼4月份出口额较上年同期上扬了23%。
上述出口强劲增势的背后，来自中国的需求仍然是主要的推动力。中国一直是全球经济增长最快的国家。尽管受到美国经济放缓以及中国政府紧缩举措的影响，今年第一季度中国经济仍较上年同期增长10.6%。为了延缓经济过快增长，遏制通货膨胀压力，中国政府采取了从紧的货币政策。
甚至日本这样的发达国家也受到了中国经济增长的推动。日本经济第一季度较上年同期增长3.3%，主要得益于向中国出口的工业品与零部件的增加。但经济学家对此警告称，最近几周此类出口已经开始显现出放缓的迹象。
印度的出口表现同样出色；继3月份出口增长27%之后，印度4月份的出口又较上年同期增长了31.5%。面临美国需求放缓的冲击，印度企业转战欧洲与中东等新市场，为其珠宝、纺织品与成品油打开了销路，从而成功维持了出口增势。中国也逐渐成为印度的主要贸易伙伴，在印度出口总额中占到了8%左右。
汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings PLC)驻新加坡的亚洲经济学家罗伯特.普赖尔-万德斯福德(Robert Prior-Wandesforde)在本周一份研究报告中写道，显而易见，至少从出口额来看，印度是亚洲又一个出口增长加速的国家，其出口并没有如近月来多数人所担心的那样出现放缓。他表示，这进一步表明，美国经济疲软并不是亚洲出口增长的灾难，更不会给整体国内生产总值(GDP)增长带来严重冲击。
然而，亚洲各国仍然面临著一些棘手的经济问题，尤其是燃料与食品价格上涨导致通货膨胀压力日益沉重，以及美国需求放缓的问题。从长期来看这可能会对经济增长造成影响。
经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 简称OECD)周三公布了其半年一次的经济展望报告。该组织在报告中预计，几乎所有的新兴经济体都会出现增长放缓，只有匈牙利会从其2007年的低迷状态中恢复。
总部位于巴黎的OECD预计，巴西、俄罗斯、印度与中国这四个国家的经济增长今年可能会逐步放缓，主要受美国经济状况恶化的拖累。
实际上，菲律宾等一些亚洲国家已经感受到美国经济放缓带来的冲击了。今年第一季度，菲律宾GDP较上年同期增长5.2%，增速明显低于去年全年的7.2%。菲律宾政府因此不得不将2008年经济增长目标从此前的6.3%-7%下调至5.7%-6.5%。
经济学家指出，菲律宾经济疲软很大程度上要归咎于出口增长放缓，尤其是对美国与其他国家的电子元件出口；更为重要的是，菲律宾缺乏棕榈油这样的重要商品，也缺少可以从中国等亚洲主要制造业国家受益的商品相关产业。
菲律宾国家经济统计部门负责人罗慕洛.维罗拉(Romulo Virola)上周公布经济增长数据时对记者表示，在经历第四季度令人惊喜的良好表现后，菲律宾经济终于在油价上涨与美国经济放缓的压力下开始走软。
新加坡4月份电子产品出口也较上年同期下滑了0.4%，当月不包括石油产品的总出口额较上年同期增长5.4%。
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