双语新闻：Freddie股东与政府利益冲突
Heard On The Street: Freddie's Competing InterestsFreddie Mac's earnings report more clearly than ever defined the battle lines between the company's shareholders and the government, which sees it as one of its main tools to bolster the housing market.
The report the mortgage giant issued Wednesday shows that the company's cushion for losses fell sharply in the quarter, giving it one of the weakest balance sheets in the financial sector and leaving it more vulnerable to future hits from the housing crunch.
This weakening in Freddie Mac's financial footing will unnerve politicians keen to see Freddie buy and guarantee even more mortgages to alleviate the credit crunch.
And investors sniffing around Freddie's shares may also want to pay heed to the enervated balance sheet. That is because the company likely will have to sell a large amount of new stock, diluting existing shareholders, to strengthen its balance sheet.
Freddie said Wednesday that it planned to sell $5.5 billion of common and preferred stock. "I think they'll continue to raise capital," said Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets.
The company's weakened state was lost on investors who rejoiced that the loss was smaller than expected and drove its shares up 9%. But the smaller-than-expected loss was primarily the result of accounting changes made in the quarter that allowed the company to book certain gains in earnings and exclude certain losses.
Freddie reclassified $90 billion in securities, boosting profit by about $1 billion compared with the fourth quarter. Another change -- related to its mortgage guarantees -- reduced a potential hit to profit by about $1 billion compared with the fourth quarter. A maneuver that delays taking credit losses also allowed the company to avoid losses in the quarter.
Excluding these and some other accounting changes, Freddie's modest $151 million loss would have been a more worrisome $2 billion.
One way to cut through the earnings noise is to go to the balance sheet and zero in on its leverage -- the amount of shareholders' equity Freddie has supporting its $803 billion of assets, which are the loans it has retained.
In the first quarter, Freddie's assets exceeded its $16 billion of shareholders' equity -- its leverage ratio -- by 50.2 times. Fannie's first-quarter leverage ratio was 21.7 times, while the first-quarter average for the 20 largest U.S. lenders was just under 12 times, according to data from SNL Financial.
A Freddie spokesman declined to comment on its leverage specifically. And to be fair to Freddie, some of the market losses that are driving down Freddie's equity may one day be recovered. For instance, equity plunged to $16 billion from $26.7 billion in the fourth quarter, in part because of unrealized losses on securities backed by subprime mortgages.
But if Freddie were a regular bank, its regulator wouldn't let leverage get anywhere close to 50 times. At a nosebleed level like that, the regulator would push Freddie to keep raising capital, even if some of its losses in equity might be fleeting.
Shareholders could sputter about the continued dilution, but the government won't be very sympathetic.
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David Reilly contributed to this column.
Problems Pile Up
For Nomura Holdings
Nomura Holdings Inc.'s problems with risky mortgage-related debt may be behind it, but the big Japanese brokerage has other things to worry about.
The brokerage set aside nearly $1.3 billion last month to cover losses tied to deals with bond insurers that were supposed to hedge against losses in debt securities it was holding. That led to a $670 million full-year loss.
Even if Nomura stomped every subprime cockroach, it still faces weakness in two core businesses.
First, while Nomura has tried to diversify, it still depends for half of its revenues on its retail brokerage business. But the value of stock traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is down 25% from last year, meaning retail investors are doing less buying and selling, and generating less commission revenue, than last year.
Second, the firm's investment-banking business also is suffering from a slowdown in deal activity.
And Nomura's credit problems may not be over. Its loan-loss provisions covered only bonds insured by some of the bond insurers, and that whole industry continues to struggle.
At best, there isn't a lot of good news on the horizon for Nomura. At worst, it could be worse.
联邦住房贷款抵押公司(Freddie Mac)的收益报告比以往任何时候都清楚地显示了该公司股东与将公司视为支撑房市的主要工具之一的政府之间的矛盾。
这一抵押贷款巨头周三发布的报告表明，该公司本季度的亏损缓冲大幅下降，令其资产负债表成为金融界最薄弱的之一，并使它在房市危机中更容易受到进一步的冲击。
Freddie Mac财务基础的削弱将会让一些政界人士紧张起来，后者急于让Freddie收购更多抵押贷款及为之提供担保，以缓解信贷危机。
关注Freddie股票的投资者或许也应该注意其削弱的资产负债表。那是因为该公司很可能要发行大量新股以支撑其资产负债表，而这种做法会稀释现有股权。
Freddie周三表示，其计划发行55亿美元的普通股和优先股。FBR Capital Markets的分析师保罗?米勒(Paul Miller)说：“我认为他们会继续筹资。”
该公司资产负债表的削弱并未影响投资者，后者对于亏损小于预期高兴不已，将其股价推高了9%。但小于预期的亏损其实是该季度的会计方法改变，允许该公司计入某些收益增长，而剔除了某些损失的结果。
Freddie将900亿美元重新划分为证券，令利润与第四季度相比增长了10亿美元左右。另一个变化与其抵押贷款担保有关，使可能的利润损失与第四季度相比降低了约10亿美元。一项推迟计入信贷亏损的举措也令公司得以避免计入本季度的亏损。
Freddie的亏损额度仅为1.51亿美元，但排除了以上及其他一些会计方法的变化，亏损额度本来会是更令人不安的20亿美元。
看透收益干扰的一个方法是找出它的资产负债表，重点看它的杠杆──Freddie用于支撑其8,030亿美元资产的股权数额，即它所保有的贷款。
第一季度，Freddie的资产超出了其160亿美元的股权（即杠杆率）50.2倍。据SNL Financial提供的数据，房利美(Fannie)第一季度杠杆率为21.7倍，而美国20家最大贷款机构第一季度平均杠杆率仅为不到12倍。
Freddie发言人拒绝就其杠杆情况置评。而且，公平地说，压低Freddie股权的一些市场亏损可能会恢复。比如说，第四季度的股权从267亿美元下降至160亿美元，部分原因在于次级抵押贷款担保证券的未兑现损失。
但如果Freddie是一家普通银行，其监管机构就不会让它的杠杆率接近50倍了。在这么高的水平上，就算它的某些股权损失可能是短暂的，监管机构也会促使Freddie继续筹资。
股东可能会对股权继续稀释气急败坏，但政府不会报以同情。
野村控股问题重重
野村控股(Nomura Holdings Inc.)在高风险抵押贷款相关债务方面的问题可能还不算严重，但这家日本大经纪公司还有别的问题需要担心。
这家经纪公司上个月划出了近13亿美元的拨备，用于与债券保险商的交易相关的损失，这类交易本来应该对冲其所持债券的损失。这一举措令该公司全年亏损额达6.70亿美元。
就算野村没有受到次债危机的影响，它的两大核心业务仍然面临疲软境地。
首先，虽然野村试图实现多元化，但其半数收入仍然依靠零售经纪业务。但东京证券交易所上市的股票总市值较去年下跌了25%，意味著散户投资者买进和卖出少了，由此实现的佣金收入也比去年少了。
第二，该公司的投资银行业务也受到交易活动减缓的影响。
野村的信贷问题或许也并未完全解决。其贷款坏帐准备金只涵盖了由某些债券保险商承保的债券，但整个行业都在继续挣扎。
要说最好的情况，野村目前没有太多的好消息。而照最坏的情况，情形还可能恶化。
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