诺贝尔奖获得者全书【1973】【经济学奖】
【获奖类别】经济学奖【获奖年代】1973年
【获得情况】华西里·列昂惕夫[img]http://fol.math.sdu.edu.cn/tyx/qyh/bobelwinners/1973-leontief.jpg[/img]
Wassily Leontief
USA
Harvard University
Cambridge, MA, USA
b. 1906
(in St. Petersburg, Russia)
d. 1999
【获奖理由】发展了投入产出方法，该方法在许多重要的经济问题中得到运用
【研究成果】for the development of the input-output method and for its application to important economic problems.
Professor Leontief is the sole and unchallenged creator of the input-output technique. This important innovation has given to economic sciences an empirically-useful method to highlight the general interdependence in the production system of a society. In particular, the method provides tools for a systematic analysis of the complicated interindustry transactions in an economy.
Professor Leontief outlined the input-output technique as early as in the 1930s. A comprehensive version of the analysis was published in 1941 in the book, The Structure of American Economy, 1919-1929. A considerably extended version appeared ten years later.
The input-output analysis describes the interdependence in the production systems as a network of deliveries between the various sectors of production. For every production sector, technical coefficients define the quantities of intermediary products which are required per unit produced of each commodity.
Final demands of products for consumption, investment and exports in the model are usually treated as determined by conditions outside the production system. The purpose of the analysis is then to find out how much production has to be increased in the various sectors of the economy to satisfy a given desired or planned increase in final demand for consumption, investment and exports. The increased production in each sector then has to cover not only the change in final demand, but also the derived changes in demand for intermediary products in the various production sectors.
Applicability of the Method
The input-output system has found extensive use especially in forecasting and planning, both in the short and in the long run. The wide usefulness of the input-output technique is indicated by the fact that it is used in forecasting and planning in quite different types of economic systems - decentralized market economies with mainly private enterprise as well as centrally-planned economies dominated by public ownership.
Examples of the Usefulness of the Method
The method has proved particularly effective in the analysis of sudden and large changes, as in the case of military mobilization or other far-reaching tranformations of an economy. The method has also been applied in studies of how cost and price changes are transmitted through various sectors of an economy.
Among recent developments of the method may be mentioned its extension to include residuals of the production system - smoke, water pollution, scrap, etc., and the further processing of these. In this way the effects of the production on the environment can be studied.
研究文献存放：
Major Works of Wassily Leontief
"The Use of Indifference Curves in the Analysis of Foreign Trade", 1933, QJE.
"Delayed Adjustment of Supply and Partial Equilibrium", 1934, ZfN.
"The Fundamental Assumption of Mr. Keynes's Monetary Theory of Unemployment", 1936, QJE.
"Composite Commodities and the Problem of Index Numbers", 1936, Econometrica.
"Implicit Theorizing: a methodological criticism of the Neo-Cambridge school", 1937, QJE.
"The Significance of Marxian Economics for Present-Day Economic Theory", 1938, AER.
The Structure of the American Economy, 1919-1939, 1941.
"The Pure Theory of the Guaranteed Annual Wage Contract", 1946, JPE.
"Introduction to a Theory of the Internal Structure of Functional Relationships", 1947, Econometrica.
"Wages, Profits, Prices and Taxes", 1947, Dun's Review.
"Postulates: Keynes's General Theory and the classicists", 1947, in Harris, editor, The New Economics.
"Note on the Pluralistic Interpretation of History and the Problem of Interdisciplinary Co-operation", 1948, J of Philosophy.
"Input-Output Economics", 1951, Scientific American.
"Machines and Man", 1952, Scientific American.
Studies in the Structure of the American Economy, 1953.
"Domestic Production and Foreign Trade: the American capital position re-examined", 1953, Proceedings of American Philosophical Society.
"Mathematics in Economics", 1954, Bulletin of the AMS.
"Factor Proportions and the Structure of American Trade: Further theoretical and empirical analysis", 1956, REStat.
"Theoretical Note on the Time-Preference, Productivity of Capital, Stagnation and Economic Growth", 1958, AER.
"The Problem of Quality and Quantity in Economics", 1959, Daedalus.
"The Rise and Decline of Soviet Economic Science", 1960, Foreign Affairs.
"The Economic Effects of Disarmament", with M. Hoffenberg, 1961, Scientific American.
"The Rates of Long Run Growth and Capital Transfer from Developed to Underdeveloped Areas", 1963, Proceedings of Conference on Role of Econometric Analysis.
"Modern Techniques for Economic Planning and Projection", 1963, Scuola in Azione.
"Multiregional Input-Output Analysis", with A. Strout, 1963, in Barna, editor, Structural Intedependence...
"The Structure of Development", 1963, Scientific American.
"When Should History be written Backwards?", 1963, Economic History Review.
"Proposal for Better Economic Forecasting", 1964, Harvard Business Review.
"On Assignment of Patent Rights on Inventions Made under Government Research Contracts", 1964, Harvard Law Review.
"Input-Output Analysis", 1965, Scientific American.
Input-Output Economics, 1966.
Essays in Economics: Theories and theorizing, 1966.
Essays in Economics, 1966.
"Theoretical Assumptions and Non-Observed Facts", 1971, AER.
"Structure of World Production: Outline of a simple input-output formulation", 1974, AER
The Future of the World Economy, with A.P. Carter and P. Petri 1977.
Military Spending, with F. Duchin, 1983
The Future Impact of Automation on Workers, with F. Duchin, 1986.
"Money-Flow Computations", with A. Brody, 1993, Econ Systems Research
【其他】
Wassily Leontief – Autobiography
I was born August 5, 1906, and spent my childhood and youth in St. Petersburg (now Leningrad) where my father was a professor of economics. Among my early indelible memories are: the country plunged into deep mourning the day of Leo Tolstoy's death; stray bullets whistling by during the first days of the February Revolution; Lenin addressing a mass meeting from a high tribune in front of the Winter Palace.
Entered the University of Leningrad in 1921. After studying philosophy, sociology and finally economics, I received the degree of Learned Economist in 1925.
Continued my studies at the University of Berlin with Werner Sombart and Ladislaus Bortiewicz, and received the Ph.D. degree, having submitted a dissertation on the theoretical subject "Wirtschaft als Kreislauf." As member of the staff of the Institute for World Economics at the University of Kiel from 1927 to 1930, engaged in research on derivation of statistical demand and supply curves. This academic work was interrupted in 1929 by a twelve-month stay in China as advisor to the Ministry of Railroads. Moved to the National Bureau of Economic Research in New York in 1931 and to the Department of Economics at Harvard University in 1932. Became Professor of Economics in 1946; organized the Harvard Economic Research Project in 1948, and served as its Director until 1973; have been Chairman of the Harvard Society of Fellows since 1965.
Married Estelle Marks, who is a poet, in 1932. A daughter, Svetlana Alpers, is now Professor of the History of Arts at the University of California, Berkeley.
Having come to the conclusion that so-called partial analysis cannot provide a sufficiently broad basis for fundamental understanding of the structure and operation of economic systems, I set out in 1931 to formulate a general equilibrium theory capable of empirical implementation. Received a research grant for compilation of the first input-output tables of the American economy (for the years 1919 and 1929) in 1932. Began to make use of a large scale mechanical computing machine in 1935 and Mark I (the first large-scale electronic computer) in 1943.
After publication of Structure of the American Economy, 1919-1929 in 1941, I continued working on the development of the input-output theory and of its various applications. The first international conference on inter-industrial relations was held at Dreibergen, Holland, in 1950; the sixth will be in Vienna in 1974.
In recent years I have been centering my attention on analysis of environmental disruption and economic growth, while maintaining, at the same time, active interest in wider problems of scientific methodology and broader issues of social and economic policies, and of evolutionary and revolutionary change.
Memberships
American Economic Association (President, 1970)
Econometric Society (President, 1954)
American Philosophical Society
American Academy of Arts and Sciences
International Statistical Institute
Honorary Member, Japan Economic Research Center, Tokyo
Honorary Fellow, Royal Statistical Society, London
Corresponding Fellow of the British Academy, 1970
Corresponding Member of the Institut de France, 1968.
Honorary Awards
Order of the Cherubim, University of Pisa, 1953
Doctor honoris causa, University of Brussels, 1962
Doctor of the University, University of York, 1967
Officer of the French Legion d'Honneur, 1968
Bernhard-Harms Prize Economics, West Germany, 1970
Doctor honoris causa, University of Louvain, 1971
Doctor honoris causa, University of Paris I (Sorbonne), 1972.
From Nobel Lectures, Economics 1969-1980, Editor Assar Lindbeck, World Scientific Publishing Co., Singapore, 1992
This autobiography/biography was written at the time of the award and later published in the book series Les Prix Nobel/Nobel Lectures. The information is sometimes updated with an addendum submitted by the Laureate. To cite this document, always state the source as shown above.
Wassily Leontief died on February 5, 1999.
[url]http://nobelprize.org/economics/laureates/1973/leontief-autobio.html[/url]
Wassily Leontief's name has been associated with a particular type of quantitative economics: input-output analysis. Input-output was partly inspired by the Marxian and Walrasian analysis of general equilibrium via interindustry flows - which in turn were inspired by Quesnay's Tableau Economique, and was the outgrowth of the "multi-sectoral" approach followed by the Kiel School.Although of fluctuating popularity, input-output analysis has been a mainstay of economics and economic policy and planning throughout the world for the past half-century.
Raised in Russia, Leontief obtained his Ph.D in Berlin. Although the seeds of input-output analysis were already in his work at the Kiel Institute, he would have to wait until he reached Harvard in 1932 to begin constructing an empirical example of his input-output system - an effort which gave rise to his 1941 classic, Structure of American Industry. Leontief followed up this work with a series of classical papers on input-output economics (collected in 1966). Input-output was novel and inspired large-scale empirical work. It has been used for economic planning throughout the world, whether in Western, Socialist or Third World countries.
It was also of crucial theoretical importance. Input-output inspired the analysis of linear production systems, which were instrumental in the development of modern Neo-Walrasian theory.Unusual for most economic contributions, Leontief's system was also crucial for the revival ofClassical Ricardian theory. The structure of input-output (albeit with some critical differences) was employed by Piero Sraffa and the Neo-Ricardians in the 1960s to resurrect the theories of Ricardo and Marx.
Leontief's contributions to economics were not limited to input-output. His 1936 article on "composite commodities" made him, together with Hicks, the father of that famous microeconomic theorem. His early reviews of Keynes's General Theory (1936, 1937, 1947, 1948) were important stepping stones to the Neo-Keynesian synthesis's stress on fixed nominal wages in interpreting Keynes's theory. His 1933 article on the analysis of international trade is still learnt today and his 1946 contribution on the wage contract outlined what is now a classical application of the principal-agent model before that term was invented.One of his more stirring contributions has been his 1953 finding that Americans were exporting labor-intensive rather than capital- intensive goods - the "Leontief Paradox" - which brought into question the validity of the conventional factor-proportions theory of international trade.
After having presided, together with Schumpeter, as a teacher over the Harvard generation of the 1930s which was to develop much of post-war economics, Leontief moved to the C.V. Starr Center at New York University. As a critic, Leontief's repeated admonishment of economics for its misuse of mathematics and quantitative methods and the lack of relevance and realism in its theorizing (e.g. 1938, 1954, 1959, 1971) are both lucid, sharp and still pertinent. It was for his development of input-output that Wassily Leontief won the Nobel memorial prize in 1973.
【获奖者的获奖演讲】
Your Majesty, Your Royal Highnesses, Ladies and Gentlemen,
One of the most characteristic features of an economic system is the mutual interrelations between the various parts of the system - what is usually called the interdependence within the economic system. Such an interdependence is characteristic also for the conditions in the production sector of an economy. For instance, in order to produce steel we need not only labor but also coal and thousands of other intermediary products, or "inputs", in the production process. But to produce the necessary coal and other inputs we require, in turn, steel and other intermediary products in addition to labor.
This means that if we want to increase the production of steel we must at the same time increase production of coal, which in turn requires increased availability of steel, etc. in an infinite series - and similarly for the thousands of other products which are directly or indirectly involved in the production of steel and coal. This, in itself, rather trivial example illustrates the previously mentioned interdependence within the production system.
Let us now remember that a modern economy produces hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of different commodities and services, of which most of them are used, directly or indirectly, as inputs in the production of other commodities and services. Thus, it is easy to understand the difficulties in calculating how large a production of each commodity is required in order to produce not only what is necessary for final use as consumption, investment and export, but also what quantities are needed as inputs in the production of all other goods and services in the system.
It is precisely in order to analyze these complicated, mutual interdependences within the production system that Wassily Leontief has developed his so-called input-output method, which is a mathematically and statistically formulated model designed for the purpose of capturing in empirical analyses the complicated interdependence within the production process.
An obvious question now is, of course, what is all this good for. In a market system, such as Sweden's, we know that we do not need any central decisions on how much to produce of each individual commodity. The composition of outputs in the economy is, as we are aware, mainly determined by a market process via the firms' supply of commodities and services and the demand for these by households and other firms in various markets for commodities and services. As we shall see, however, the input-output method can be used as a complement to the market process - mainly for forecasting and economic planning. A few examples may illustrate the point.
In connection with the disarmament in the United States after the Second World War, and with the rearmament for the Korean War, the input-output method was used to calculate how the disarmament and rearmament, respectively, would influence the production volume and employment level in the various sectors of the American economy, taking into account also the various indirect effects on demand for inputs - not only in the defense industries but also in other enterprises which were, directly or indirectly, delivering commodities and services to the defense industry.
Another example is that the input-output method can be used to study how changes in production costs in one sector are spread to other sectors of the economy - again, in an infinite series of effects. In this way, it is for instance possible to study the effects on the economy as a whole of a change in wages in one sector or, to take a contemporary example, the direct and indirect effects on prices of various commodities and services of a change in oil prices. It has also been found out recently that the input-output method is quite useful for studying the various "residuals" from the production process that disturb the environment in our high-technology societies.
A centrally performed input-output analysis can in this way give information about the consequences for various production sectors of changes in other sectors - such as the consequences for production in various sectors of the economy of increased demand for consumption, investment or export. This is particularly valuable in the case of sudden changes in the economic system. Firms and public authorities will, through the centrally performed input-output studies, get a chance to anticipate future development without having to wait for the market signals which will appear due to changes in supply and demand in the various markets for commodities and services. This menas that the input-output method may occasionally be helpful not only for centrally carried out forecasting and economic planning but also for decision-making on the firm's level.
I now turn to you, Professor Leontief. You have by your input-output model given economic science an important tool of analysis for studying the complicated interdependence within the production system in a modern economy. You have not only constructed the theoretical foundations of the input-output method; you have also by your painstaking work developed the empirical data that are necessary to utilize the method on important economic problems as well as to test empirically various economic theories.
It is a great honor to convey to you the congratulations of The Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences and to ask you to receive from the hand of His Majesty The King the 1973 Prize in Economic Science in Honor of Alfred Nobel.
【Prize Lecture】[url]http://nobelprize.org/economics/laureates/1973/leontief-lecture.pdf[/url]
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